Archive for the 'Lake of the Pines' Category

Lake of the Pines Real Estate. How Are We Doing? Summary

said on May 23rd, 2012 filed under: Lake of the Pines, Localism, Neighborhood Profiles, Real Estate Nuts and Bolts

There are about 2,000 homes at Lake of the Pines.

159 Lake of the Pines homes sold during the past two years (May,2010-May,2012).  That’s about 4% per year.

 

(1) APPLES TO APPLES

Sales of “average” homes during the past two years

About the same number of “average” homes (43 to 46) sold this year as in the previous year, but sold 25 days  faster.

Prices of “average” homes have risen slightly, about 6%, (comparing the median of $224,000 in 2010-2011 with the median of $239,900 in 2011-2012).

Prices of “average” homes have risen slightly, about 3% (comparing the average of $241,992 in 2010-2011 with the average of $248,931 in 2011-2012).

Prices of “average” homes are almost identical (comparing price per square foot  ($130 to $129).

SUMMARY

Prices of “average”  homes sold at Lake of the Pines have been relatively unchanged from the previous year through this year.

 

 (2) THE WHOLE FRUIT BASKET

About the same “total” number of homes sold this year (81)  as in the previous year (78), but sold 24 days  faster (101 days on the market to 125).

Prices have risen slightly, about 3%, (comparing the median of $231,500 in 2010-2011 with the median of $239,500 in 2011-2012).

But . . .

Prices have fallen slightly, about 4% (comparing the average of $303,652 in 2010-2011 with the average of $290,019 in 2011-2012).

Prices have fallen slightly, about 4% (comparing price per square foot  ($145 to $139).

SUMMARY

Sales of larger, more expensive, lakefront homes in 2010/2011 skewed the data, rendering contradictory results

 

(3) APPLES AND ORANGES

Lots of mixed results.

The number of distressed home sales in 2011/2012 (13) was 50% less than it was the previous year in 2010/2011 (26).  What happened to the “flood” of foreclosures?

The number of regular home sales in 2011/2012 (30) was 33% more than it was the previous year in 2010/2011 (20).

In 2010/2011 distressed properties were on the market longer than regular sales; in 2011/2012 distressed properties were on the market for a shorter time than regular sales.

Consistently, across all types of Lake of the Pines Properties, sellers are getting about 95% of their asking price.

Distressed properties sell for less money.  Using “price/square foot sold” as the basis of comparison, distressed homes sold for 21% less than regular sales in 2010/2011 and for 29% less in 2011/2012.

Fewer distressed homes sold this year than distressed homes sold last year, and for 14% less money.

More regular homes sold this year than last year, but for 4%  less money.

 

(4) THE FARMER’S MARKET–HOMES CURRENTLY FOR SALE

48                     total number of homes for sale at Lake of the Pines on May 21, 2012

REGULAR SALES

37                    number of regular homes for sale (no foreclosures)

$1,549,000     highest priced regular home for sale

$160,000        lowest priced regular home for sale

$452,541        average priced regular home for sale

$330,000        median priced regular home for sale

105                  average days on the market (and counting–from 5 DOM to 419 DOM)

$182                average price per square foot (asking price not sold price which will be lower)

DISTRESSED SALES (foreclosures and short sales–does not include back-up shortsales)

11                       number of foreclosures and short sales

$350,000         highest priced distressed home for sale at lake of the Pines

$135,900          lowest priced distressed home for sale at lake of the Pines

$238,780          average priced distressed home for sale at lake of the Pines

$244,000          median priced distressed home for sale at lake of the Pines

125                    average days on the market

$101                  average price per square foot

PENDING SALES

21                     number of pending sales at Lake of the Pines

78                     average days on the market when home went into contract

$272,966         average list price when home went into contract

$137                 average price per square foot  when home went into contract

BACKUP SHORT SALES

(Backup short sales are similar to pending sales, but the offered price has not yet been approved by the lender)

9                       number of current backup short sales

165                   average days on the market when home was submitted for short sale approval

$162,211          average list price when home was submitted for short sale approval

$110                average price per square foot when home was submitted for short sale approval

 

(5)  GOLDEN APPLES?  LAKEFRONTS

The number of lakefront homes sold rose from 9 to 13, or 31% in the past two years.

Based on average sold price, prices declined 19%

Based on median sold price, prices declined 15%.

Based on price per square foot, prices declined 14%

Lakefront home prices are not being dragged down by foreclosures and short sales.

ACTIVE MARKET, LAKEFRONT HOMES FOR SALE RIGHT NOW (May 22,2012)

Number of Lakefront homes for sale                   7

Highest price                                                    $1,549,000

Lowest price                                                        $799,000

Average price                                                    $1,076,142

Median price                                                       $998,000

Average days on market                                         235

Average price per square foot                              $312

Based on price per square foot, the prices lakefront homes sold at Lake of the Pines declined 14-15% during the past two years.

Based on price per square foot, current sellers are asking almost twice as much for their homes.

 

 

 

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Lake of the Pines Real Estate. How Are We Doing? Part 5

said on May 22nd, 2012 filed under: Lake of the Pines, Localism, Market Trends, Neighborhood Profiles, Real Estate Nuts and Bolts

GOLDEN APPLES?

This is the fifth of a five-part analysis of real estate at Lake of the Pines, California.   In this fifth analysis, we’re going  to examine the most expensive group of homes at Lake of the Pines, the “lakefronts.”

We will look first at the lakefronts that sold one year ago (May 23, 2010 through May 22, 2011) as compared to lakefronts that sold during the past 12 months (May 23, 2011 through May 22, 2012).  Then we will look at the lakefronts that are for sale right now, also called the “actives.”

                                                          5/23/10 thru 5/22/11           5/23/11 thru 5/122/12

Number of lakefronts sold                                9                                                   13

Highest price sold                                    $1,095,000                                      $915,000

Lowest price sold                                        $450,000                                      $400,000

Average price sold                                       $736,702                                      $598,576

Median price sold                                        $735,000                                     $625,000

Average  list price                                         $773,944                                    $637,107

%sold price/list price                                       95%                                               94%

Price/square foot listed                                 $258                                              $227

Price/square foot sold                                    $246                                              $212

Average days on market                                  172                                                161

 

ANALYSIS

The number of lakefront homes sold rose from 9 to 13, or 31%.  The sample, however,  is too small for this increase to be especially meaningful.   Better than a poke in the eye, but don’t get too excited, because . . .

Prices fell off a cliff.

Based on average sold price, prices declined 19%

Based on median sold price, prices declined 15%.

Based on price per square foot, prices declined 14%

No way to mince words, spin it in a positive way, squint at it through rose-colored glasses and make it look better.  The lakefront homes at Lake of the Pines are taking a royal beating at the real estate  marketplace.  No, it’s not that lakefront home prices are being dragged down by foreclosures and short sales.  In the first period, 2010/2011, there was only 1 distressed sale out of 9, and that one sold higher than the other 8  in price per square foot ($285  per square foot vs. the group average of $246 per square foot).  In the second period, there was only 1 distressed sale out of 13, and that property was only slightly below the group average ($202 per square foot vs. $212 per square foot).

No, don’t try to blame the decline on foreclosures and short sales.

Were lakefront homes wildly over-valued and still correcting?

Are buyers still too tight to spend on “luxury” homes?

 

ACTIVE MARKET, LAKEFRONT HOMES FOR SALE RIGHT NOW (May 22,2012) 

Number of Lakefront homes for sale                   7

Highest price                                                    $1,549,000

Lowest price                                                        $799,000

Average price                                                    $1,076,142

Median price                                                       $998,000

Average days on market                                         235

Average price per square foot                              $312

ANALYSIS

The price per quare foot of the homes on the market today ($312) is almost exactly twice the price per square foot of homes sold in the past 12 months ($161).  Yes, there is 1 home out of the 7 (the most expensive) that is pulling the price per square foot up a bit, but even taking that one out of the sample, the other 6 current actives are way above the average price per square foot of the sold homes.

SUMMARY

Based on price per square foot, lakefront homes at Lake of the Pines declined 14-15% during the past two years, and yet based on price per square foot, current sellers are asking almost twice as much for their homes.  Does this give you some idea why lakefront homes are a tough sell right now?

 

 

 

 

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Lake of the Pines Real Estate. How Are We Doing? Part 4

said on May 21st, 2012 filed under: Lake of the Pines, Localism, Neighborhood Profiles, Real Estate Nuts and Bolts

THE FARMER’S MARKET

This is the fourth of a five-part analysis of real estate at Lake of the Pines, California.   In this fourth analysis, we’re going  to market and see what is for sale right now (May 21, 2012) at Lake of the Pines.

TOTAL SALES

48                     total number of homes for sale at Lake of the Pines on May 21, 2012 as reported on Paragon MLS

47                     total number of homes for sale at Lake of the Pines on May 21, 2012 as reported on Metrolist MLS

REGULAR SALES

37                    number of regular homes for sale (no foreclosures)

$1,549,000     highest priced regular home for sale

$160,000        lowest priced regular home for sale

$452,541        average priced regular home for sale

$330,000        median priced regular home for sale

105                  average days on the market (and counting–from 5 DOM to 419 DOM)

$182                average price per square foot (asking price not sold price which will be lower)

 

DISTRESSED SALES (foreclosures and short sales–does not include back-up shortsales)

5                       number of foreclosures and short sales

$350,000         highest priced distressed home for sale at lake of the Pines

$135,900          lowest priced distressed home for sale at lake of the Pines

$238,780          average priced distress home for sale at lake of the Pines

$244,000          median priced distress home for sale at lake of the Pines

125                    average days on the market

$101                  average price per square foot

 

PENDING SALES

21                     number of pending sales at Lake of the Pines

78                     average days on the market when home went into contract

$272,966         average list price when home went into contract

$137                 average price per square foot  when home went into contract

 

BACKUP SHORT SALES

(Backup short sales are similar to pending sales, but the offered price has not yet been approved by the lender)

9                       number of current backup short sales

165                   average days on the market when home was submitted for short sale approval

$162,211          average list price when home was submitted for short sale approval

$110                average price per square foot when home was submitted for short sale approval

 

 

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Lake of the Pines Real Estate. How Are We Doing? Part 3

said on May 19th, 2012 filed under: Lake of the Pines, Localism, Neighborhood Profiles, Real Estate Nuts and Bolts

APPLES AND ORANGES

Do foreclosure and short sale homes (distressed) at Lake of the Pines sell for less than regular homes?

Of course they do.

How much less?  Let’s examine the “distressed homes” market in Lake of the Pines, California for two different periods:

May 19,2010 through May 18, 2011 compared to the period of May 19, 2011 through May 18, 2012.

I selected “average” houses between 1500 and 2500 square feet that sold during these two periods.

                                                     5/19/10 thru 5/18/11           5/19/11 thru 5/18/12        

Number of distressed sales                           26                                                    13

Number of regular sales                                 20                                                   30

Highest distressed sold                             $280,000                                      $325,000

Highest regular sold                                  $435,000                                      $405,000

Lowest distressed sold                                 $165,000                                      $73,000

Lowest regular sold                                    $150,000                                      $150,000

Average distressed sold                              $210,025                                      $184,446

Average regular sold                                   $283,550                                      $275,171

Median distressed sold                               $207,500                                      $169,900

Median regular sold                                    $289,000                                     $272,500

Average distressed list price                       $218,759                                      $196,192

Average regular list price                            $301,409                                    $290,341

%sold price/list price distressed                    96%                                               94%

%sold price/list price regular                         94%                                                95%

Price/square foot listed distressed               $122                                              $107

Price/square foot listed regular                    $157                                              $150

Price/square foot sold distressed                  $117                                               $101

Price/square foot sold regular                       $148                                              $142

Average days on market distressed                 136                                                85

Average days on market regular                      98                                                103

 

ANALYSIS

Lots of mixed results.

The number of distressed home sales in 2011/2012 (13) was 50% less than it was the previous year in 2010/2011 (26).  What happened to the “flood” of foreclosures?

The number of regular home sales in 2011/2012 (30) was 33% more than it was the previous year in 2010/2011 (20).

In 2010/2011 distressed properties were on the market longer than regular sales; in 2011/2012 distressed properties were on the market shorter than regular sales.  Go figure.

Consistently, across all types of Lake of the Pines Properties, sellers are getting about 95% of their asking price.  But this statistic is deceptive.  The original price (the price at which a home first came on the market) and the asking price (the price at which the home was for sale when an acceptable contract was negotiated) are often different.  Frequently the price has been reduced, sometimes more than once, so that the asking price is much lower than the original price.  When that happens, the %sold price/original price may be much less than 95%.

Distressed properties sell for less money.  How much less?  A lot less.  Distressed markets and regular markets are like two separate realities within the same town.  Using “price/square foot sold” as the basis of comparison, distressed homes sold for 21% less than regular sales in 2010/2011 and for 29% less in 2011/2012.

How did distressed sales fare from 2010/2011 to 2011/2012?  Again, using “price/square foot sold” as the basis of comparison, prices of “average sized” distressed properties declined 14% in 2011/2012.

How did regular sales fare from 2010.2011 to 2011/2012?  Prices of “average sized” regular homes declined slightly in 2011/2012, about 4%.

SUMMARY

Fewer distressed homes sold this year than last year, and for 14% less money.

More regular homes sold this year than last year, but for 4%  less money.

 

 

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Lake of the Pines Real Estate. How Are We Doing? Part 2

said on May 18th, 2012 filed under: Lake of the Pines, Localism, Neighborhood Profiles, Real Estate Nuts and Bolts

THE WHOLE FRUIT BASKET

This is the second of a five-part analysis of real estate at Lake of the Pines, California.   In this second analysis, I’m not going to compare apples to apples .  With this one, you get the whole fruit basket–regular sales, foreclosures, short sales, lake fronts, golf course homes, good streets, better streets, and best streets, tiny houses, average-sized houses, and a few behemoths–all of it.  I will compare ALL of the Lake of the Pines homes that sold during the past 12 months (May 19, 2011 through May 18, 2012) with ALL of the homes that sold the previous year (May 19, 2010 through May 18, 2011).

                                                     5/19/10 thru 5/18/11           5/19/11 thru 5/19/12        

Number of homes sold                                  78                                                    81

Highest price sold                                   $1,095,000                                      $915,000

Lowest price sold                                      $120,000                                         $73,000

Average price sold                                    $303,652                                       $290,019

Median price sold                                      $231,500                                      $239,500

Average list price                                       $321,626                                      $306,056

%sold price/list price                                     94%                                               95%

Price per square foot listed                         $154                                             $147

Price per square foot sold                           $145                                              $139

Average days on the market                          125                                                 101

 

ANALYSIS

You can see that about the same number of homes sold this year (81)  as in the previous year (78), but sold 24 days  faster (101 days on the market to 125).

Prices have risen slightly, about 3%, (comparing the median of $231,500 in 2010-2011 with the median of $239,500 in 2011-2012).

But . . .

Prices have fallen slightly, about 4% (comparing the average of $303,652 in 2010-2011 with the average of $290,019 in 2011-2012).

Prices have fallen slightly, about 4%  (comparing price per square foot  ($145 to $139).  This is probably the most reliable indicator of value.

 SUMMARY

Sales of larger, more expensive, lakefront homes in 2010/2011 skewed the data, rendering contradictory results.  Almost all of the decline in prices can be found at the upper end of the price range.  Keeping this in mind, it is reasonable to state that prices of homes sold at Lake of the Pines, except for the lakefronts, have been relatively unchanged from the previous year through this year.  

In the next  blog, we’re going to get even more sophisticated.  We’ll look at the same Lake of the Pines market for the same two periods of time, but we”ll compare conventional sales with homes sold as foreclosures and short sales.

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Lake of the Pines Real Estate. How Are We Doing? Part 1

said on May 18th, 2012 filed under: Lake of the Pines, Localism, Neighborhood Profiles, Real Estate Nuts and Bolts

 APPLES TO APPLES

This is the first of a five-part analysis of real estate at Lake of the Pines, California.   In Part 1 I will compare average-sized Lake of the Pines homes that sold during the past 12 months (May 19, 2011 through May 18, 2012) with average homes that sold the previous year (May 19, 2010 through May 18, 2011). For this first study I am defining average-sized homes as between 1500 and 2500 square feet and excluding “lakefront” homes along the shore.

                                                     5/19/10 thru 5/18/11           5/19/11 thru 5/19/12        

Number of homes sold                                  46                                                    43

Highest price sold                                   $435,000                                      $405,000

Lowest price sold                                      $150,000                                         $73,000

Average price sold                                    $241,992                                       $248,931

Median price sold                                      $224,000                                      $239,900

Average list price                                       $254,694                                      $262,824

%sold price/list price                                     95%                                               95%

Price per square foot listed                         $137                                             $136

Price per square foot sold                           $130                                               $129

Average days on the market                          119                                                  94

 

ANALYSIS

You can see that about the same number of homes (43 to 46) sold this year as in the previous year, but sold 25 days  faster (94 days on the market to 119).

Prices have risen slightly, about 6%, (comparing the median of $224,000 in 2010-2011 with the median of $239,900 in 2011-2012).

Prices have risen slightly, about 3% (comparing the average of $241,992 in 2010-2011 with the average of $248,931 in 2011-2012).

Prices are almost identical (comparing price per square foot  ($130 to $129).  This is probably the most reliable indicator of value.

 

SUMMARY

Prices of homes sold at Lake of the Pines have been relatively unchanged from the previous year through this year.   

 

 

 

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Success Story at Lake of the Pines, California

said on May 8th, 2012 filed under: Lake of the Pines, Localism, Success Stories

Matt walked into my office at Lake of the Pines and said:

“I want a realtor who will write as many low ball offers as it takes for me to get a house.”

I said:

“I’m your man. It sounds like you’ve been working with another realtor?”

“Yeah, but I fired her.”

“Why?”

“She wouldn’t listen to me.  I told her I only had so much money, that’s all, but she kept showing me houses that cost more than I had.”

“How much do you have?”

He said:

“One hundred and thirty thousand dollars.  Can you get me a house for that?  All I need is a foreclosure at Lake of the Pines that I can fix up for me and my three kids.”

Matt told me that he was a single dad with a job as a groundskeeper at a nearby country club.  He had a daughter at Cottage Hill Elementary School, a son at Magnolia Middle, and another daughter at Bear River High. Those three schools are adjacent to Lake of the Pines, so it was easy to see why he wanted to stay in the community where he was currently renting a home.

But, by limiting himself to Lake of the Pines, a gated community with about 2,000 homes, his selection of fixers-for-sale was also limited.  Even more problematic, these foreclosures were mostly in the $150,000 to $170,000 price range.

Taking a deep breath, I began to write offers, typically $120,000, sometimes $125,000.  Over a two-month period we presented offers on 9 different homes, with an additional half dozen counter offers—when we could get the bank sellers to respond to our first foray.

We both became discouraged, and a little frantic.  The only way Matt could make this work financially was to take advantage of a first-time buyer program, and that money was drying up.

Then, a miracle.  The bank owner of a unique Tahoe-styled 3 bedroom cabin on a quiet cul-de-sac street at Lake of the Pines ran up the white flag, surrendered and accepted our cobbled-together offer of $135,000 with a $6,000 credit back to the buyer for a total purchase price of $129,000.

This home was a 3 story, gambrel-roofed construction, not typical of the single-story homes preferred at Lakeof the Pines, but it fit Matt and his kids like a well-tailored suit.  The top floor had a modest master suite for Matt with a bedroom, his own bathroom, and private balcony overlooking a shady back yard.  The main floor had the kitchen, living room, bathroom, deck, and two bedrooms, one each for the two youngest kids.  The lower floor had a studio with private bath, and private entrance for the teenage girl.

Last night, I had the great pleasure of giving Matt the keys. Today he, the kids, his brother, and his mom and dad are painting and fixing stuff.  Tomorrow I’m going to there replace a window and do some wiring.  Monday, they move in to their own home.

Ain’t that a good story!

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Gardening at Lake of the Pines, California

said on April 24th, 2012 filed under: Fun Things to Do Outdoors, Lake of the Pines, Localism

Here’s a “before” video of my garden at Lake of the Pines.  The weather has been so quirky, I waited until mid-April before putting in the veggies.  I stick to basics:  tomatoes, potatoes, squash, cukes, lettuce, and my specialty, carrots.  Oh, sure, there’s a bit of cilantro and mint, and rosemary and lavender grow all over my yard like a weeds.

Enough, chatter, here’s the vid:

 

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Fishing at Lake of the Pines, California

said on April 22nd, 2012 filed under: Fun Things to Do Outdoors, Lake of the Pines, Localism

The bass are spawning in the shallows this week at Lake of the Pines, California.  The fishermen are just “tearing it up.”   I have been watching them pull one fish after another up from right off my dock.  Fortunately (for the bass), these are “catch and release” fishermen.  Come to think of it, maybe they are catching the same 5 to 10 pound lunkers over and over again.

My pal, Cheryl Taylor, took this early morning photo  from her deck this morning (April 22, 2012).  You can see from the fisherman’s posture that he has something on the line.  In 12 years or living on the lake, I have never seen the fishing so good.

Lake of the Pines is a man-made lake, approximately 230 acres in size with 5 and 1/2 miles of shoreline and several coves.  It’s back in those shallower coves where you will find the action at this time of year.

There are several species of pan fish (blue gills, etc) and a few cat fish lurking in the depths near the dam, but make no mistake about it, Lake of the Pines is a bass lake.  Technically, it’s not a catch-and-release lake.  You can keep ’em, but what would you do with ’em?  Eat ’em?  Yuk.  Don’t bother.  These are sport fish, not eatin’ fish.

I do love living at Lake of the Pines.  I’m going down to the store and get my fishing license as soon as I get off work, put the boat in the water, and start flinging rubber worms at the bass.  Most of the year, these fish are smart, but during spawning season, they are dumb as rocks.  Even I can catch them.

 

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Running Around at Lake of the Pines, California

said on April 19th, 2012 filed under: Lake of the Pines, Localism

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